研究方向     

     非线性气候动力学：短期气候预测、演化算法与机器学习、非线性参数估计、模式误差订正、数据反演、气候突变检测及其早期预警信号

     Keywords: Climate Prediction; Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos; Complex Systems;  Evolutionary Algriothm; Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence; Bifurcation;   Stochastic Process; Complex Networks;  Tipping Point;  Aburpt Climate Change; Early Warning Signal；Critical phenomena; Time Series and Multifractality, Scaling; Long-range Correlation;  Image processing; Causality Detection; Entropy

研究背景

      短期气候预测：我国是世界上遭受气象灾害影响严重的国家，年均因灾死亡3000多人，直接经济损失超2000亿元，占所有自然灾害造成经济损失的七成。因此，开展短期气候预测方法研究，不断提高月/季/年尺度上的短期气候预测的准确率是当前国民经济发展和防灾减灾的迫切需求。然而，气候系统是一个复杂的、非线性的动力学系统，目前人类对气候系统演变机制的了解仍然十分有限，有限的认识使得预测气候系统未来的变化成为一个难题。通过人类的不断努力，尽管目前已有能力开展气候趋势预测，而且有时预测结果还比较准确，但其仍然存在着很大的不确定性。由于空间可预报性问题，目前，气候预测在局地尺度上还依然存在着“过山车”现象。因此，短期气候预测仍然是一个世界性的难题，相比天气预报，短期气候预测的总体水平仍不高。为此，开展短期气候预测的理论和方法研究具有重大的科学意义。

      气候突变检测及其早期预警： 在全球气候变化背景下，气候系统、生态系统、海洋系统等都面临着突变的可能。预测这样的临界变化是特别困难的，一方面因为系统状态在到达临界点之前通常只显示微小的变化；另一方面，由于气候系统的复杂性和非线性特征，以及人类目前对其的有限认识，导致现阶段对于潜在的气候突变的预测/预警困难重重。因此，气候突变的早期预警是当前国际前沿研究的一个热点和难点问题。基于非线性动力学理论和方法，聚焦气候突变的早期预警问题，尝试揭示气候系统在趋近其突变点（临界翻转点）的过程中某些一般性的内禀变化特征，是提前对气候系统未来的各种可能突变进行预警的一个有效途径。

基本情况

       何文平教授，博士研究生导师，中山大学百人计划引进人才，中国气象科学研究院博士研究生导师。主要从事非线性气候动力学的理论和方法研究，2008年博士毕业后进入国家级科研型业务单位中国气象局国家气候中心工作了11年，就职于气候服务室，有着丰富的决策咨询报告的撰写经验，主笔的十多份决策服务材料受到党和国家领导人的批示，熟悉当前国内外气候与气候变化相关的业务和科学前沿，在短期气候预测与气候变化检测及预警研究中取得了较为系统性的研究成果。先后主持国家自然科学基金项目7项，作为骨干参与全球变化重大专项2项，作为专题组长参与国家科技支撑计划1项；已发表SCI论文60余篇，其中第一/通讯作者SCI论文50多篇。

        在短期气候研究方面：发展了非线性参数估计的新方法和模式预测误差的动力学订正方法（不同于传统的统计后处理订正技术），并基于气候系统的非平稳性和记忆性特征，发展了一种考虑系统动态演化的气候预测新方法，提高了区域尺度短期气候预测的准确率；提出了考虑系统自身长期记忆性的ENSO趋势预测新方法，并建立了基于多时刻观测资料作为初值的常微分ENSO动态预测模型，有效地减少了ENSO发展趋势预测中的不确定性。相关成果已在国家级/省级气候预测业务以及国家海洋环境预报中心业务应用。

        在气候变化研究方面：提出了识别气候系统动力学变化的突变检测新思路和系列新方法，尤其是创新性地提出了场的气候突变检测理论和方法，打破了以往仅仅针对单个时间序列开展突变检测的固有思路。 针对气候系统翻转点的预警难题，初步发展了一套气候突变的早期预警方法，其预警能力性能已为多种突变模型和古气候突变所证实，如新方法能够有效地提前预警新仙女木事件结束向全新世大暖期的转换、Bølling–Allerød变暖事件的爆发。此外，发现减少的可预测性是北太平洋海表气压在1976/1977年出现年代际转折的一个统计显著的早期预警信号。

教育/工作经历

    2019年8月至今，中山大学大气科学学院，教授

    2012年8月至2019年7月，国家气候中心气候服务室副主任

    2008年6月至2019年7月，中国气象局国家气候中心，工程师/高级工程师/研究员   

    2005年9月至2008年6月，兰州大学大气科学系，气象学专业，理学博士

讲授课程

    本科生：短期气候预测；空气污染气象学；大学物理实验

    研究生：非线性动力学前沿进展；气候系统的复杂性和预测方法

承担项目情况：

1. 国家自然科学基金面上项目：非线性模型结构性误差的动力学订正方法研究, 42375059 , 2024.01- 2027.12，在研，主持
2. 国家自然科学基金面上项目：基于外强迫信号提取的短期气候非线性预测方法研究, 42175067, 2022.01- 2025.12，在研，主持 
3. 广东省自然基金面上项目: 基于气候系统长期记忆性特征的气候突变早期预警方法研究，2021A1515011428, 2021年01月- 2023年12月，结题，主持
4. 国家自然基金面上项目：基于图像复杂性和分形特征的气候突变检测方法研究 ，41975086，2020.01- 2023. 12，结题，主持
5. 教育部青年教师重点培育项目：气候突变的早期预警信号研究，20lgzd06，2020年 1月- 2021 年12 月，结题，主持
6. 国家自然基金面上项目：基于临界慢化和信息传输理论的气候突变早期预警信号研究，41775092，2018.01至2021.12，结题，主持
7. 国家重点研发计划（“全球变化及应对”）：“京津冀超大城市和城市群的气候变化影响和适应研究”第二课题“极端事件对超大城市建设和运维的影响机理研究”，2018YFA0606302，2018 .05 - 2023 .04，结题，骨干
8. 国家自然基金面上项目：非线性气候动力学模型的参数估计方法研究，41475073，2015.01-2018.12，结题，主持
9. 国家自然基金面上项目：基于空间图像的气候突变检测方法研究，41275074，2013.01-2016.12，结题，主持
10. 国家重大科学研究计划：“全球气候变化对气候灾害的影响及区域适应研究”第二课题“重大气候灾害的早期预警信号和预测方法”，2012CB955902，2012.01 -2016.08，结题，骨干
11. 国家自然基金青年基金项目：气候动力学结构突变检测的研究，40905034，2010.011-2012.12，21万元，结题，主持
12. 国家科技支撑计划：“我国主要极端天气气候事件及重大气象灾害监测、检测和预测关键技术研究”第一课题 “极端天气气候事件的检测和可预测性关键技术研究”-2007BAC29B01第2专题，2007.01-2011.12，结题，专题负责人

已发表/在审的第一和通讯作者SCI论文目录：

1. Wenping He*, Wan Shiquan, Chou Jifan. The multi-systematic model errors correction method for  nonlinear dynamical equations based on evolutionary algorithm. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 2024.
2. Yongqiang Chen, Siyi, Wang, Wenping He*, Global Air-sea CO2 Flux Inversion Based on Multi-Source Data Fusion and Machine Learning. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: the interdisciplinary journal of Nonlinear Science, and Nonequilibrium and Complex Phenomena,2024,192，https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2024.115963.
3. Jingyan Guo, Dong Xiao*，Huijun Zhao，Wenping He*. Opposite Effects of Intraseasonal Water Vapor Income on Summer Atmospheric Precipitable Water Over the Bengal Region. Climate Dynamics, 2025, 63：70.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07511-9.
4. Qianze Liu, Wenping He*, Xiaoqiang Xie, Ying Mei, Hui Sun, Niklas Boers. Early warning signal of abrupt change in sea level pressure based on changing spectral exponent. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 2024,187:115350, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2024.115350.
5. Siyi Wang, Ying Mei*, Qianze Liu, Wenping He*.The impacts of global warming on climate zones over China based on CMIP6 models. Int. J. Climatol., 2024, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8567.
6. Kai Wang, Shujuan Hu*, Deqian Li, Jianjun Peng, Zihan Hao, Wenping He*, Zhihai Zheng. Ensemble Tree Model Prediction of Summer Precipitation in North China Based on Predictor Selection strategy. Climate Dynamics, 2024, 62:6539–6554.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07223-0.
7. Ying Mei, Xiaoqiang Xie, Bin Gu, Wenping He*. Increasing long-range correlation as an early warning signal for a critical transition. Journal of Climate, 2023, 37: 487–504 DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0263.1.
8. Wenping He*, Shanshan Zhao, Shiquan Wan, and Yundi Jiang. Whether the updates of dynamical processes can improve the performance of BCC-CSM model to reproduce the long-range correlation of the daily temperature? Int. J. Climatol., 2023, 43:4368–4378. DOI: 10.1002/joc.8092.
9. Siyi Wang, Yongqiang Chen, Ying Mei, Wenping He*. The robustness of driving force signals extracted by slow feature analysis. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals: the interdisciplinary journal of Nonlinear Science, and Nonequilibrium and Complex Phenomena, 2023, 171:113447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113447.

10. Binbin Li, Lanfang Wu, Wanxue Zhu, Chunlian Qiao, Jin Zhang, Wenping He*. Influence of crop residue management and soil tillage method on reducing the carbon footprint of winter wheat production in the salt-affected arable land in the North China Plain. Agronomy, 2023, 13(4), 1018; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13041018.

11. Xiaoqiang Xie, Ying Mei, Bin Gu, Wenping He*. Changing Box-Cox transformation parameter as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Climate Dynamics, 2023, 60:4133–4143 , DOI:10.1007/s00382-022-06563-z.
12. Ying Mei, Shanshan Zhao, Siyi Wang, Xiaoqiang Xie, Shiquan Wan, Wenping He*. Influence of anthropogenic forcing on the long-range correlation of air temperature in China. Int. J. Climatol., 2022, 42(16):10422-10434，DOI: 10.1002/joc.7914.
13. Deqian Li, Shujuan Hu*, Wenping He*, Bingqian Zhou, Jianjun Peng, Kai Wang. The area prediction of Western North Pacific Subtropical High in summer based on Gaussian Naive Bayes. Climate Dynamics, 2022, 59: 3193-3210. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06252-x
14. Wenping He*, Xiaoqiang Xie, Ying Mei, Shiquan Wan & Shanshan Zhao. Decreasing predictability as a precursor indicator for abrupt climate change. Climate Dynamics, 2021, 56(11), 3899-3908. 
15. Qiong Wu, Xiaoqiang Xie, Ying Mei, Wenping He*. A new early warning indicator of abrupt climate change based on the changing standard deviation-based range. Int. J. Climatol., 2021, 41(5): 2983-2995.
16. Yuan, N.*, Xiong, F.*, Xoplaki, E., Wenping He*, Jürg Luterbacher. A new approach to correct the overestimated persistence in tree-ring width based precipitation reconstructions. Clim. Dyn., 2021, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06024-z
17. Wenping He*, Shanshan Zhao, Qiong Wu, Yundi Jiang, Shiquan Wan. Simulating evaluation and projection of the climate zones over China by CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics, 2019, 52(5), 2597-2612.
18. Xiaoqiang Xie, Wenping He*, Bin Gu*, Ying Mei, Jingsong Wang. The robustness of the skewness as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Int. J. Climatol., 2019, 39(15): 5672-5687.
19. Xiaoqiang Xie, Wenping He*, Bin Gu, Ying Mei, Shan-shan Zhao. Can kurtosis be an early warning signal for abrupt climate change? Climate Dynamics, 2019, 52: 6863–6876.
20. Wenping He*, Shanshan Zhao. Assessment of the quality of NCEP-2 and CFSR reanalysis daily temperature in China based on long-range correlation. Climate Dynamics, 2018, 50(1), 493-505.
21. Shanshan Zhao, Wenping He*, Yundi Jiang. Evaluation of NCEP-2 and CFSR reanalysis seasonal temperature data in China using detrended fluctuation analysis. Int. J. Climatol., 2018, 38(1): 252-263.
22. Liu Qunqun, Wenping He*, Bin Gu, Detecting abrupt dynamic change based on changes in the fractal properties of spatial images. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2017, 130:435-442. 
23. Wenping He*, Liu Qunqun, Bin Gu, Shanshan Zhao. A novel method for detecting abrupt dynamic change based on the changing Hurst exponent of spatial images. Climate Dynamics, 2016, 47(7): 2561–2571. 
24. Wenping He*, ShanShan Zhao, Qunqun Liu, YunDi Jiang, Beisheng Deng. Long-range correlation in the drought and flood index from 1470 to 2000 in eastern China. Int. J. Climatol. 2016, 36: 1676–1685. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4450.
25. Wenping He*, Liu Wang, Yundi Jiang, Wan Shiquan. An improved method for nonlinear parameter estimation: A case study of the Rössler model. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2016, 125(3): 521-528.
26. Jin HM, Wenping He*, Liu QQ, Wang JS, Feng GL. The applicability of research on moving cut data-approximate entropy on abrupt climate change detection. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 2016, 124(1): 475-486.
27. Shi-Quan Wan, Qunqun Liu, Jianxin Zou, Wenping He*. Nonlinearity and fractal properties of climate change during the past 500 years in northwestern China. Discrete Dyn. Nat. Soc., 2016, 2016(2):1-7.
28. Wenping He*, Liu Qunqun, Jiang Yundi, Lu Yin. Comparison of performance between rescaled range analysis and rescaled variance analysis in detecting abrupt dynamic change. Chinese Physics B, 2015,24(4): 049205.
29. Shanshan Zhao, Wenping He*. Evaluation of the performance of the Beijing Climate Centre Climate System Model 1.1(m) to simulate precipitation across China based on long-range correlation characteristics. J Geophys Res 2015，120(24): 576-588.
30. Liu Qun-Qun, Wenping He*, Gu Bin. Application of nonlinear dynamical methods in abrupt climate change detection. Acta Physica Sinica, 2015, 64(17): 179201-179201.
31. Zhao Shan-Shan, Wenping He*. Performance evaluation of the simulated daily average temperature series in four seasons in China by Beijing Climate Center climate system model. Acta Phys. Sin., 2015, 64(4): 049201. 
32. Liu Wang, Wenping He*, Shiquan Wan, Lejian Liao, Tao He. A new method for parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical equations. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2015, 119 (1): 193-202. 
33. Zhao Shan-Shan, Wenping He*. Performance evaluation of Chinese air temperature simulated by Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model on the basis of the long-range correlation. Acta Phys. Sin, 2014, 63(20): 209201.
34. Wang Liu, Wenping He*, Wan ShiQuan, Liao LeJian, He Tao. Evolutionary modelling for parameter estimation for chaotic system. Acta Phys. Sin, 2014, 63(1): 019203. 
35. Wenping He*, Shiquan Wan, Yundi Jiang, Wen Zhang, Qiong Wu, Tao He.  Detecting abrupt change on the basis of skewness: numerical tests and applications. Int. J. Climatol., 2013, 33(12): 2713–2727. 
36. Wenping He*, Wang Liu, Wan Shi-Quan et al. Evolutionary modeling for dryness and wetness prediction. Acta Phys. Sin., 2012, 61(11): 119201. 
37. Wenping He, Feng, G.*, Wu, Q., He, T., Wan, S. and Chou, J. A new method for abrupt dynamic change detection of correlated time series. Int. J. Climatol., 2012, 32(10): 1604–1614.
38. Wan, S. Q., Wenping He*, Wang, L., Jiang, W., and Zhang, W.: Evolutionary modeling-based approach for model errors correction, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 2012，19(4): 439-447. 
39. Jin Hong-Mei, Wenping He*, Zhang Wen, Feng AiXia，Hou Wei. Effect of noises on moving cut data-approxinajimate entropy. Acta Phys. Sin., 2012, 61(12): 129202. 
40. JIN Hong-Mei, Wenping He*, HOU Wei, Zhang Daquan. Effects of different trends on moving cut data-approximate entropy. Acta Phys. Sin., 2012, 61(6): 069201.
41. Cheng Hai-Ying, Wenping He*, He Tao and Wu Qiong. A new approach to abrupt change detection based on change of probability density distribution. Acta Phys. Sin., 2012, 61(3): 039201.
42. Wenping He*, He Tao, Cheng Hai-Ying, Zhang Wen and Wu Qiong. A new method to detect abrupt change based on approximate entropy. Acta Physica Sinica, 2011, 60(4): 049202.
43. Wenping He*, Wu Qiong, Cheng Hai-Ying and Zhang Wen. Comparison of applications of different filter methods for de-noising detrended fluctuation analysis. Acta Physica Sinica, 2011, 60(2): 029203.
44. Wenping He*, Deng Bei-Sheng, Wu Qiong, Zhang Wen and Cheng Hai-Ying. A new method of detecting abrupt dynamic change based on rescaled range analysis. Acta Physica Sinica, 2010, 59(11) :8264~8271.
45. Wenping He*, Wang Qi-Guang, Wu Qiong, Zhang Wen and Zhang Yong. Comparison of characteristics of moving detrended fluctuation analysis with that of approximate entropy method in detecting abrupt dynamic change. Acta Physica Sinica, 2009, 58(4): 2862~2871.
46. He Wenping*, Feng Guolin, Wu Qiong, Wan Shiquan, Chou Jinfan. A new method for abrupt change detection in dynamic structures, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2008, 15(4):601-606. 
47. Wenping He, Feng Guo-Lin, Gao Xin-Quan and Li Jian-Ping. Amplitude death in non-feedback coupled chaotic system. Acta Physica Sinica, 2006, 55(11): 6192~6196.
48. Wenping He, Feng Guo-Lin, Gao Xin-Quan and Chou Ji-Fan. Dynamics of the Lorenz system under quasiperiodic driving. Acta Physica Sinica, 2006, 55(6): 3175~3179.
49. Wenping He, Feng Guo-Lin, Dong Wen-Jie and Li Jian-Ping. On the predictability of the Lorenz system. Acta Physica Sinica, 2006, 55(2): 969~977.
50. Wenping He, Feng Guo-Lin, Dong Wen-Jie and Li Jian-Ping. Influence of stochastic disturbances on the quasi-wavelet solution of the convection-diffusion equation. Chinese Physics B, 2005,14(1): 21~27.
51. Wenping He, Feng Guo-Lin, Dong Wen-Jie and Li Jian-Ping. Comparison with solution of convection-diffusion by several difference schemes. Acta Physica Sinica, 2004, 53(10): 3258~3264.