【学术预告】（2024年“逸仙大气论坛”系列讲座第36讲）气候变化背景下下珠三角地区的热浪、极端降水与风暴潮

In 2023, Earth experienced its hottest year, with extreme weather events intensifying. This study uses dynamical downscaling of CMIP6 models to project future climate impacts on the Pearl River Delta (PRD) under different socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the mid-21st century (2040-2049) and end of the century (2090-2099). Results indicate a significant increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves and extreme precipitation. For instance, Hong Kong could see hourly precipitation rise to 295mm/h by the 2090s. Additionally, tropical cyclones will intensify, causing higher storm surges and coastal hazards. This study highlights the urgent need for urban adaptation and resilience strategies to mitigate future climate risks, providing critical information for policymakers in the PRD and similar vulnerable regions.

2023年是全球有历史记录以来最热的一年，全球变暖带来的区域天气、气候变化已不容忽视。该讲座将介绍在CMIP6不同情境下，21世纪中叶及末叶珠三角地区的热浪、极端降水和风暴潮等灾害性天气的变化情况。研究结果显示，珠三角地区热浪和极端降水的频率、强度及持续时间将进一步增加；登陆台风的强度也会增加，从而导致更强的风暴潮及沿岸气象灾害。研究结果强调未来城市地区将面临更为严峻的气候风险，区域脆弱性进一步提升。